05/20/2004  

 Well it's always tough to pick against an incumbent World Champion. However many great champions have lost titles in their first defense. Tal, Spassky, Euwe, Capablanca, and Smyslov have all lost  titles in  their first defense. Recently, Kramnik has regained a lot of his world championship form.  Experience is so very important. Kramnik has a lot to draw from his outstanding victory over the Great Garry Kasparov in 2000. It was a very decisive victory (8.5-6.5). In no game was Kramnik in danger of losing. Had it not been for Kasparov tenacious defense the score would have been much higher.  Leko is a very tough player to defeat, but he might lack the match experience  to handle the 14^th World Champion Vladimir Kramnik. However the head to head match is about even. I think Kramnik leads in that department by a game.  Kramnik was able to steal the number one spot at Linares this year, when Leko over pressed in their game together. If Kramnik has regained his world championship form, then he can defeat anyone.  I believe Kramnik will retain his title by a score of 8-6.