Changing of the
Guard.
There is a good possibility of a
changing of the guard
with
the upcoming World Championship Chess Match. This has happened a few times in
chess history. A changing of the guard occurs when the next generation chess
talent takes over and one of its members becomes world champion. This occurred
when Tal defeated Botvinnik in the 1960 World Championship. It occurred again in
1972 when Fischer defeated Spassky. It occurred again when Kasparov defeated
Karpov n the 1985 and still again when Kramnik defeated Kasparov in 2000. The
Anand-Kramnik era of dominance
maybe coming to an end, if Magnus
Carlsen , a member of the next generation ,can defeat Vishy Anand in the World
Championship this November .
Vishy Anand
is facing his third title defense at the age of 43. No doubt this defense will
be the toughest of Anand’s career. Most
champions are ex champions at this point in their careers.
He is facing Magnus Carlsen, a very young talented chess player, who
happens to be the highest rated player in the history of the game.
There is a good possibility that Anand will lose the title to Carlsen.
Top 4 Reason why
there will be a changing of the guard.
1) Anand’s age 43, few champions defend their titles into
their 40’s.
2) Anand’s third title defense, few champions successfully
defend the title that many times
3) Anand has given Carlsen reason to believe he can win the
title
4) Anand will not bring the 9th pawn with him
when he defends his title. The Ninth Pawn is the advantage only a champion can
bring to the match; it represents the confidence due to successful trial and
test. The Champion should think that he is the greatest player in the world.
Since Fide’s
control of the world championship process, two world championship matches come
to mine that matched a young top talented GM against a seasoned veteran World
Champion. The first was Botvinnik vs. Tal in 1960 and the second was Karpov vs.
Kasparov in 1984. Both matches ended well for the young challengers, both eventually
defeated the champions, but on closer inspection only one went decisively well
for the challenger, and that occurred in the 1960 match.
I think the analysis of these two matches will help us determine the
likely outcome of Anand vs. Carlsen.
Age plays an
important factor. Here are the approximate ages of champions who lost their
titles: Steinitz was 58, Lasker was
53, Capablana was 39, Alekhine was 43, Euwe was 36, Botvinnik when he first lost
his title was 46, lost it again at 49 and finally at 52, Tal was 24, Petrosian
was 40, Spassky was 36, Fischer retired at 32, Karpov was 34, Kasparov was 37,
and Kramnik was 32. Vishy Anand will be 43 when he defends his title for the
third time.
Since Fide has
controlled the championship, history tells us that world champions usually lose
their titles by or before their third defense.
World
Champion Mikhail Botvinnik won his title after winning the 1948Championship
Tournament that was organized after then Champion Alexander Alekhine died.
Botvinnik, while champion, never won a world championship match.
He did successfully defend his title by drawing his matches with his
challengers. He drew matches with
Bronstein in 1951 and Smyslov in 1954. Botvinnik
lost his title by losing to challengers: Smyslov
in a third title defense in 1957, Tal in 1960, and Petrosian in 1963. Botvinnik
regained the title by defeating Smyslov in 1958 and Tal in 1961. Both Smyslov
and Tall lost their only title defenses. Petrosian,
who was challenged by Spassky twice, won the first defense in 1966 and lost the
second in 1969. Boris Spassky lost his only defense in 1972 to Bobby Fischer,
who retired from chess in 1975.
Karpov, after getting the title by default when Fischer retired, successfully
defended his title in 1978 and 1981 against Viktor Kortchnoi. Karpov third
defense was a failed, aborted match against Kasparov. Karpov would lose the 4th
defense to Kasparov, who would be the exception to the rule.
He successfully defended his title 5
times, defeating: Karpov in 1986, 1987,
and 1990, Nigel Short in 1993, and Vishy Anand in 1995. Kasparov would lose his
sixth defense to Kramnik in 2000. Kramnik successfully defended his title in
2004 by drawing with Peter Leko and was successful again against Veselin Topalov
in 2006, winning on tie breaker.
Kramnik finally lost his third title defense in 2008 against Anand.
Vishy Anand, the current champion, has
successfully defended his title two times, once against Topalov in 2010 and
against Boris Gelfand in 2012.
If we
consider pre-Fide period, Steinitz
defend his title 5 times before losing to Emanuel Lasker in 1894, Lasker was
able to defend it successfully 6 times, before
losing his 7th defense to Jose Capablana in 1921.
Capablana lost his only defense against
Alekhine in 1927. Alekhine lost his
third title defense to Max Euwe in 1935.
Euwe lost his only defense to Alekhine in 1937.
Title
defense history is not on Anand’s side.
World Champion Mikhail Botvinnik stated that each world championship
match takes a year off the end of a player’s life. If you just consider the true
lineage of world championship matches, this is Anand’s 5th world
championship match, and his fourth since 2008.
Anand has given
Carlsen reason to believe he can win.
The overall record
between these players favors Anand by a score of 6-3 with 20 draws. However the
trend is in Carlsen’s favor, having won 2 out of the last 8 games. Those two
wins came in 30 moves or less. In their last, decisive game, Carlsen totally
dominated Anand. Carlsen attack
seemed to appear out of thin air, just like a storm in the middle of the ocean.
Carlsen’s 2013 tournament record is also
much better than Anand’s record, whose 2013 record is inconsistent at best. Out
of 9 events Anand has finished first only once and 2nd place three
times. Carlsen on the other hand has two first place finishes and 3 second place
out of 6 events. Carlsen is ranked number one in the world with a rating of 2872
while Anand is ranked 8th with a 2775 rating.
Both players tournament
record since 2010 clearly favors Carlsen.
Anand will not
bring the 9th Pawn.
When a boxer wins the title, he becomes a better boxer.
I believe this happens when a chess player becomes a world champion. He
becomes a better player. He knows
he is the best of his kind. He is best by successful trial and test.
Recently Anand made a
dangerous concession, stating that Magnus Carlsen
is the greatest talent Anand has ever seen. Gary Kasparov also made a similar
concession prior to his failed defense against Kramnik, when Gary stated he
could lose this match. Prior to his challenge for the title, Leko made a similar
statement about then Champion Vladimir Kramnik, when Leko said Kramnik looks the
deepest into a chess position than any chess player.
Leko failed win the title and had had to console himself with drawing the
match, when he lost the final, dramatic game of the match. The Champion can only
bring the 9th pawn if his recent track record is good and he is a
confident champion. Anand is near
the bottom of the top ten and has an inconsistent tournament record.
Two similar
matches:
In the 1960
Botvinnik vs. Tal match, Mikhail Tal, the young, top rated player, was facing a
fading champion. Mikhail Botvinnik,
the champion, was 49 years old and was not very active in the tournament scene.
He was more scientist than chess player.
He had already lost his title to Smyslov in 1957 and regained it the following
year due to the rematch clause. Botvinnik had never decisively defeated a
challenger. Even though the 23 year old
Tal never played Botvinnik, Tal had to be very confident at the start of the
match. It is well known, that Tal was not confident before the first game
because he usually lost the first game of many tournaments before finding his
way. Tal’s sense of worry about first
game proved to be faulty and he handily defeated Botvinnik in the first game and
got commanding lead and never relinquished it. Tal
won the match by a 6-2 score. Tal would
also fall victim to Botvinnik’s rematch clause and would lose his title in 1961
by a similar margin.
In the 1984
Karpov vs. Kasparov match, Garry Kasparov, a rising star, didn’t fare as well in
his first challenge for the World Title. He was 21 years of age and facing a
World Champion, who according to Viktor Kortchnoi was at the peak of his powers.
Prior to the match, Kasparov had never defeated Karpov. They had played a few
times, and the games ended in draws. Even though Kasparov was the highest rated
player at the time, he was not very confident. He didn’t understand Karpov’s
style of play. Karpov was the 2nd
highest player in the world and was still dominating tournaments.
Karpov showed no weakness in his amour. He gave Kasparov no reason to
believe he could win the match. By Kasparov’s own admissions he did not feel
confident about beating Karpov.
Just prior to the match, Kasparov had hoped he could defeat the Champion.
He suffered from nerves at the start of
the match. He lost 4 out of 11 games and trailed 4-0. Karpov failed to seize on
this and waited for Kasparov to hand him the two other victories needed to win
the match. This did not occur and the match went on for months.
Kasparov
rallied by winning the last two games, but
Fide, citing player exhaustion, length
of the match, and poor quality of the
games, stopped the match with Karpov was still leading 5-3.
The Likely outcome
of Anand vs. Carlsen
I think the Anand vs. Carlsen match is closest to the
Botvinnik vs. Tal match. Carlsen is facing a fading champion not at the top of
his game and in his third title defense. Carlsen has good
reason to believe
he
can win this match. Anand has started slowly in his last two world championship
defenses. He lost the first game to Topalov, in his 2010 match, but was able to
recover and win the match in the final game. In his 2012 match against Gelfand,
Anand, with white, lost game 8, but rallied to tie the match and win on tie
breaker. With almost 100 point rating advantage, I expect Carlsen to continue
his trend against Anand. I expect
Carlsen to pick up where he left off at the Fide Candidate Tournament. Just like
Tal, I expect Carlsen to take advantage of another Anand slow start and take an
early, commanding lead and never look back. Magnus
Carlsen has good reason to believe he can win this match.